Will September 12 be a Black Wednesday for the Philippines?
Fifteen years ago, on September 16, 1992, Wednesday, Britain was forced to withdraw the Pound currency from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) following its uncontrollable decline due to pressure by currency speculators. Total losses caused by the day's events were said to reach more than £3.4 billion. That day has since been known as Black Wednesday.
Tomorrow, September 12, Wednesday, the Sandiganbayan is set to announce its verdict on the six-year-old plunder and perjury cases filed against former President Joseph "Erap" Estrada. Whether Black Wednesday will materialize tomorrow — with the Philippine stock market heading for a nosedive — depends more on the response of pro- and anti-Erap groups and also of the Arroyo government, and not on the verdict per se.
If Estrada is convicted, will pro-Erap groups stage a repeat of "Edsa III," complete with violent protests and renewed threats to oust Pres. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo? Such chaos is abhorred by the market and this can cause stocks to plunge again.
If, on the other hand, Estrada is acquitted, will more social unrest erupt considering Erap is already free to move around, easily capable of rallying people against Arroyo?
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